Quantifying Hope: Cubs Hold 96% Playoff Odds Despite Standings Drop
The Cubs just dropped two of three to the Royals, becoming the first good team in MLB history to lose a home series to a sub-.500 opponent. And if you don’t believe that’s true, spend a few minutes on social media. The fact of the matter is that the Cubs are 11-7 this month with series wins over the Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Red Sox. Their fall from first place isn’t due to their own failure, it’s the result of the Brewers being the hottest team in baseball.
I hope I’m preaching to the choir here, but winning 11 of 12 is neither normal nor sustainable. Do the Cubs need to make improvements? Absolutely. But that’s some foolishly reactionary response to their performance in two of the last three games. If the Dodgers hadn’t been so freaking worthless in their six recent games against the Brewers, being swept twice and scoring four total runs in the first four losses, the Cubs being shelled by KC would be little more than an inconvenience.
As it is, the Cubs enter the weekend with a nigh-insurmountable one-game deficit in the NL Central. Ah, but they close the month with three games in Milwaukee that could get them back to within a game of the lead. I’m assuming, of course, that the Cubs will be swept on the South Side while the Crew runs roughshod over the Marlins. Jed Hoyer may as well turn his attention to selling at the deadline just to keep us all from the inevitable anguish of watching those postseason hopes circle the drain for the last few weeks of the season.
Since I know media literacy isn’t going to experience a great revival anytime soon, I’ll go ahead and state for the record that I’m joking. While it’s possible the Brewers stay hot and distance themselves a little further from the Cubs, their current heater isn’t going to last. And even if it does, the Cubs are on pace for 95 wins and a Wild Card berth. That’s before we factor in their likely additions by the end of the month.
That’s why the Cubs are at nearly 96% postseason odds, almost a full percentage point higher than the Brewers. Though it might not be comforting to you personally, it’s good to know the computers still favor the Cubs.
I was watching something recently about how to deal with difficult people who seem set in their ways, and the key is to try to understand how they see things. Everyone has their own perception, and it’s very often limited by any number of factors. But when we can broaden our outlook to gain perspective, we can see things through different lenses. The perception of a good many fans right now is that the Cubs are playing poorly, but perspective allows us to see that they’re actually playing quite well on the whole.
Feel free to continue your self-flagellation if you must, but we really need to do a better job on the whole when it comes to the ramifications of any three-game set.
