Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/26/25): Busch Leads Off, Shaw at 3B, Horton Starting

The Cubs laid a big, steaming pony loaf earlier in the week against the Royals at Wrigley, and it appears they stepped in it and tracked it all the way to the South Side last night. Shota Imanaga gave up three homers out of the 12(!) hits he allowed in just three innings of work. That’s like a travel ball game where a team sends out a non-pitcher to take a beating in a pool game just to save dudes for the bracket. Except, of course, that Imanaga is supposed to be an ace.

The Cubs did manage to score five times on nine hits, with three each coming from Reese McGuire and Vidal Bruján at the bottom of the order. The latter raised his batting average by 52 points and boosted his wRC+ by 29, though it’s still at just a 46 on the season. Bruján now boasts a higher batting average than Matt Shaw, though the rookie has been far better overall — especially on defense.

Not that it matters when the Cubs are getting their doors blown off by sub-.500 teams from the AL Central. Good thing the Brewers also lost last night. Not good thing that Adrian Houser has suddenly become a potential trade target after being cast off by several teams, including the Cubs, over the last few seasons.

While it’ll take a lot more than one game to wash away the aftertaste of the turd sandwich they’ve been noshing on for a few days now, a gem from Cade Horton would be nice. The righty has done a good job of answering the bell, and there’s no better time for him to step up in a big way than tonight.

Maybe the bats can do something to provide a little early run support as well. Michael Busch remains in the leadoff role playing first, Kyle Tucker is in right, and Seiya Suzuki — who has a no-trade clause — is the DH. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Carson Kelly does the catching, and Ian Happ — who also has an NTC — is in left. Dansby Swanson plays short, Nico Hoerner is at second, and Matt Shaw bats last at third.

They’re facing well-traveled righty Aaron Civale, who has played for two teams in each of the last three seasons by being traded from the Rays to the Brewers to the White Sox. He gained a little infamy with that latter move, as his desire to be traded out of Milwaukee resulted in an exile to one of the worst teams in baseball. He’s 1-4 with a 4.66 ERA and 4.92 FIP over seven starts for the Sox, notching just 23 strikeouts to 16 walks over 36.2 innings. That ain’t great.

Civale has a varied pitch mix headlined by the 89 mph cutter he throws about 35% of the time. It’s an okay offering, but it’s completely washed out by the 92 mph sinker (18%) and four-seam (16%) that have gotten decidedly negative results. His curveball (16%) is meh, his slider has been quite bad, and Statcast shows him throwing a sweeper six times. Those are probably just yeeted sliders or cutters.

His best pitch by a wide margin is the splitter, which has generated more value on a per-pitch and overall basis. That’s why he throws it only 6% of the time, and almost always to left-handed hitters. The slider is the only pitch he throws far more heavily to righties, with most everything else being much more equitable. That helps to explain the massive reverse splits that see right-handed hitters putting up at least 29 more points across all three facets of the slash line.

Most of that comes from his results at home, though that can be a little misleading given his abnormally early change of scenery. Civale is not very deceptive and his velocity plays way down due to his 1st-percentile extension, so the Cubs should make plenty of contact tonight. The one thing he’s got going for him is an ability to avoid hard contact, as evidenced by giving up only 10 homers out of the 59 hits against him in 58.2 innings. That’s remarkable for a fly-ball pitcher.

The Cubs absolutely must jump on this guy right out of the gate and win this one going away, then they need to wallop the Sox again on Sunday. First pitch is at 6:10pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.