Nico Hoerner Might Just Be Cubs MVP This Season

Pete Crow-Armstrong got off to an incredible start this season, generating MVP buzz and earning a starting spot in center for the NL All-Star team. Kyle Tucker likewise earned a starting nod by hitting for power and average while walking as often as he struck out. But as the second half of the season has progressed, both star outfielders’ production has dropped precipitously. And while they remain the Cubs’ leaders in fWAR, a less-heralded producer is gaining on them.

Ryan Herrera of MLB.com and Just Baseball asked whether Nico Hoerner has an argument for team MVP, and I have to say his case is strong to quite strong. Though he only leads the team in one major category — his .299 batting average is second in the NL — Hoerner’s case is based more on being second or third across the board. His 4.6 fWAR is just behind Tucker’s 4.7 and PCA’s 5.1; his 27 steals trail only PCA; his Gold Glove defense trails only the center fielder as well.

In fact, Hoerner is tied for sixth among all MLB players with 17 defensive runs saved, one ahead of PCA, and his 13 outs above average put him in a tie for 10th. As impressive as his batting average is on its own, it gets even better when you see that Hoener’s .362 mark with runners in scoring position is the best in the NL and third in MLB. His 147 wRC+ with RISP is 32 points higher than his overall mark, so he’s producing when it matters most.

Even as someone who generally frowns on the idea of a player being “clutch,” Hoerner’s performance often causes me to rethink my bias. He doesn’t hit for power or drive in a ton of runs, nor does he draw a lot of walks to drive his OBP into elite territory. There really isn’t anything Hoerner does better than anyone else on the team, other than hitting for average. But he does everything really well, and sometimes that can be more valuable than excelling in one or two areas.

Given his consistency and well-rounded play, not to mention a scorching hot September so far, I think it’ll take something very special from PCA or Tucker to unseat Hoerner as the 2025 Cubs MVP.