Chicago Cubs Lineup (10/9/25): Busch Leads Off, Boyd Starting

The Cubs got just enough offense on Wednesday, their most in a postseason game since 2017, to outlast the Brewers and push the series to a fourth game. They might want to consider scoring after the opening frame tonight to get this thing back to Milwaukee, but it won’t matter much if the pitching can’t hold serve. That starts with Matthew Boyd, who is back on the bump after a disastrous Game 1 appearance.

Unlike that outing, however, the lefty is coming into this game on regular rest. That means Craig Counsell won’t have to provide any flimsy rationale for running him out there in a move few outside the organization felt would go well. In addition to that extra day off, Boyd should get a bump from pitching at home. His 2.51 ERA in 15 starts at Wrigley is significantly better than his 3.90 mark over 16 road games, and he held the Padres at bay over 4.1 innings in the Wild Card opener.

The only bad news is that winds are expected to shift from going right to left to blowing straight out to left at around 8 mph. That looks very bad on paper for a southpaw against whom right-handed hitters slugged .394 with 17 of the 19 homers he allowed, but Boyd’s splits were almost even at home. The nine dingers to righties are a bit alarming, so the Cubs will just need to find a way to do their own mashing.

Michael Busch has already shown he can do that, and he bats and plays first as usual. Then it’s Nico Hoerner at second, Kyle Tucker at DH, and Seiya Suzuki cleaning up in right. Ian Happ is in left, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Dansby Swanson is at short and Matt Shaw rounds things out at third base.

Despite Pat Murphy’s best attempts at gamesmanship, the Brewers went ahead and opted for the obvious choice to start ace Freddy Peralta in this one. Peralta opposed Boyd in Game 1 and fared slightly better, allowing just two solo homers and striking out nine batters over 5.2 innings. That was the first time the Brewers had won a postseason game in which Peralta pitched, breaking a streak of five losses. The Cubs have their work cut out for them if they’d like to stop that win streak at one.

Peralta is a strikeout machine whose only real weaknesses are walks and fly balls, something we saw with those homers last Saturday. He also walked three batters, but the Cubs did zero damage with runners on base. That includes failing to so much as attempt a stolen base, which has become a frustrating theme this postseason. They only attempted two steals against the Padres and hadn’t tried at all against the Brewers until Wednesday’s win.

PCA swiped a bad and Tucker was technically caught, but that was a wildly bad decision with a hitching jump. Knowing how badly they’ve struggled to score runs all postseason, and looking at their historical lack of success against Peralta, the Cubs had damn well better be more aggressive tonight. Craig Counsell can’t just sit back and hope the game comes to him.

Though he generally pitches to mild traditional splits in terms of both handedness and home/away, Peralta gives up more slug to right-handed hitters and on the road. Those combine to see him allow a .464 slugging percentage to righties when he’s a visiting pitcher, which bodes very well for the Cubs with the wind blowing out to left. While he could pitch lights-out, it’s just as possible that he sprays the ball around and hangs a few meatballs. His strikeout rate also drops off precipitously while his walk rate climbs quickly the second and third times through the order.

Peralta is comfortable throwing almost every pitch to any batter. The 84 mph slider is the exception there because he rarely throws it to lefties, but his 95 mph fastball, nasty 89 mph change, and tight 79 mph curve are good enough to keep his splits nearly even. The Cubs need to get to Peralta early and then keep their foot on the gas, something we have yet to see from them in this series.

First pitch is at 8:08pm CT on TBS and 670 The Score. You could also watch on HBO Max if you don’t plan to flip to other programming until the game is over, at which point you can bounce straight to Peacemaker.