The Rundown: Imanaga’s QO Decision, Buxton Could Waive NTC, Skenes Reportedly Wants Yankees Trade

Jed Hoyer confirmed on Tuesday at the GM Meetings that pitching will be the Cubs’ primary focus, though that’s not really saying much because it’s been evident for some time now. Even if Justin Steele is back for the start of the season and Shōta Imanaga either accepts the $22.025 million qualifying offer or works out a new deal, the rotation lacks dynamism beyond Cade Horton. What’s more, the bullpen has been decimated by free agency and will need several reinforcements.

Of course, Imanaga is far from a lock to return. While indications are that the two sides have had at least preliminary discussions about a new deal, Jon Heyman reported Tuesday evening that Imanaga is expected to turn down the QO. That’s more than a little interesting, what with the circumstances surrounding his decision. He’s coming off a very rough second half that saw him hand out homers like Halloween candy, plus teams that sign him would face penalties due to his QO tag.

And let’s not forget that Imanaga already turned down two years and at least $30.5 million. Saying no to the QO means he has to be confident he’ll get more than that, or that he’s not confident he can bounce back next season. Being able to lock in just over $22 million, or 44% more than he’d have earned had he picked up his 2026 player option, would mean he’d only have to get $8-9 million in 2027.

That’s far from guaranteed with the likelihood of a work stoppage, so Imanaga’s camp has to be looking to secure a three-year deal that would guarantee him an MLB job and salary once a new CBA is in place. My thought has been that he would take the QO to lock in a much higher AAV than he’ll be able to secure in free agency. Then he can either parlay a bounceback season into a new deal with no penalties attached or bounce back to Japan if labor strife indeed ensues.

Therein lies the rub, which is that playing under the QO could reduce his leverage entirely. Say he lays an egg in 2026 and the owners lock the players out or there’s a strike following the season; no way is he getting a new MLB deal at all. I still believe the QO is his best path, but it sounds like he and his reps may believe otherwise. Or it could be that Heyman’s report is inaccurate. Either way, we’ll know by next Tuesday at 3pm CT.

Byron Buxton Could Be Perfect Fit

The Cubs may be in the market for a corner outfielder to improve their depth ahead of the potential departures of both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki in free agency after this coming season. Finding a replacement for either player on the open market isn’t going to come cheap, and it’s hard to see Jed Hoyer paying the kind of money it takes to land an impact bat.

But what if they could acquire an All-Star Silver Slugger with an incredibly reasonable deal that still has three years remaining?

Enter Buxton, who The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports may be willing to waive his no-trade clause to play for a winner if the Twins continue their roster teardown. Like Happ, the Buxton has been fiercely loyal to the only organization he’s ever played for and has said he was not open to being moved. That could change if staying in the Twin Cities means languishing near the bottom of the standings for the next few seasons.

Buxton, who will turn 32 in December, was drafted second overall by the Twins in 2012 and debuted in 2015. Though he hasn’t been the most consistent producer, he’s a two-time All-Star who just won his first Silver Slugger after slashing .264/.327/.551 with 35 homers and a 136 wRC+ in 2025. He’s only ever played center field, but could easily slide over to right to replace Kyle Tucker or split time with Suzuki.

And the best part: The seven-year, $100 million extension Buxton signed in 2022 comes to less than $14.3 million AAV with actual salaries of just over $15.1 million in each of the next three seasons. That is incredibly economical for his expected production, which doesn’t figure to tail off dramatically through his age-34 campaign. Hell, it could even get better.

A right-handed hitter with a strong tendency to pull the ball in the air, Buxton would not be as negatively impacted as a lefty batter by Wrigley’s park factors. And while the balanced schedule somewhat reduces the impact of divisional games, moving from one Central division to the other should be good for his power. Nothing huge, mind you, but Statcast’s expected home runs data shows Buxton with 53 more career dingers across the five NL Central parks versus their Junior Circuit counterparts.

The NL East and West are also more conducive to his home run totals, though he obviously won’t play all of his games in any one park. Buxton’s elite bat speed and batted-ball numbers are somewhat offset by his high chase and strikeout rates, though he also possesses top-tier speed. He’s kind of like an older version of Pete Crow-Armstrong in that sense.

Acquiring Buxton would mean parting with Owen Caissie and/or Kevin Alcántara, either of whom would make sense for a Twins team looking to get younger and cheaper. Alcántara seems like a better fit due to his tools and the ability to play center, but Minnesota’s front office might have other ideas. It will also take more than a one-for-one, and the strong possibility of trading away Joe Ryan or Pablo López means the Twins will also need some pitching.

Rather than follow a trade-proposal rabbit trail, I’ll close with the idea that this is about as good a fit as the Cubs are going to find in an offseason that has very little to offer as far as outfielders go. Of course, the same goes for a whole lot of other teams, and Buxton having veto power means he can pick and choose where he goes. Like so many other possibilities, this is something interesting to monitor even if it’s not particularly likely to coalesce.

Skenes Wants to Play for Yankees

Just like Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole before him, it seems inevitable that Paul Skenes will be the next top Pirates draft pick to end up with the Yankees. Cole did at least have a stint with the Astros in between, but the fact of the matter is that Pittsburgh is going to end up dealing Skenes for a load of prospects rather than paying him or losing him to free agency. And since they don’t appear to be willing or able to build a decent team around him, that trade could come soon.

Or could it?

“He is going to be a Pirate in 2026,” GM Ben Cherington told FanSided’s Robert Murray on Tuesday.

Okay, but Skenes has apparently not been shy at all about telling teammates he wants to be traded to the Yankees. Randy Miller of NJ Advanced Media spoke with an unnamed Pirates teammate who said Skenes has “no confidence the Pirates ever are going to win” and wants to be traded well before his rookie deal expires at the end of the 2029 season.

“Trust me, he wants to play for the Yankees,” the teammate told NJAM. “I’ve heard him say it multiple times.”

Miller shared this information with Cherington, who was either unaware of it or just playing dumb, to get a reaction.

“I do dismiss it, but I understand it,” the Pirates executive said Tuesday at The Cosmopolitan. “What we’re going to focus on is just how do we win games with him in a Pirates uniform. I have a ton of respect for the Yankees, but we’ll just focus on what we need to do.”

Cherington has to understand the assignment, right? I mean, you take the job in Pittsburgh hoping to breathe enough life into the team to get a better gig somewhere else. Until Bob Nutting keels over or sells the team, baseball ops will never have the capital to compete in a meaningful way without the help of a miracle or three. That means biding your time until the perfect offer comes in for Skenes, whether that’s the Yankees or otherwise.

I’m even open to the idea that Cherington wants reports like this out there, perhaps that he is complicit to some extent in the whole thing. After all, this only serves to grant the Pirates more leverage since Skenes has zero control over where he’s traded. The Southern California native grew up a big Angels fan just outside of Anaheim, so spurring a little tug-of-war works to Cherington’s advantage.

The Mandalorian and Grogu

We’ve got a few months yet, but I think this one is going to be a lot of fun.