The Rundown: Durbin Trade Quiets Shaw/Hoerner Speculation, Cubs ‘Better Ballclub’ This Year, Pirates Sign Ozuna

If Craig Breslow learned anything from Jed Hoyer, how to keep his machinations quiet wasn’t one of them. The Cubs have done a very good job when it comes to surprise moves, but the Red Sox often seem to send Paul Revere riding through the streets of baseball media to signal their intent. Okay, that’s a little dramatic, especially since their latest move wasn’t super obvious for its specificity.

Even those of us living wicked fah from the hahbah knew that Breslow was going to have to add another infielder after signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Many thought a deal with the Cubs made sense, particularly when viewing how the teams matched up. Nico Hoerner was never a realistic option, though Matt Shaw certainly was if the Cubs felt he’d end up in a utility role beyond this season. In the end, it was another NL Central team that ended up pairing with Boston.

The Red Sox are acquiring second-year third baseman Caleb Durbin, who finished third behind Drake Baldwin and Cade Horton in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Durbin earned 69 points following a nice debut season in which he slashed .256/.334/.387 with 11 homers and a 105 wRC+ over 506 plate appearances. The fireplug infielder is roughly the same size as Nick Madrigal, just with a little more pop.

Durbin doesn’t have nearly the same offensive upside as Shaw, but his hit tool should be strong enough to make him at least a mildly above-average producer for years to come. He’s also a grinder for whom I earned a lot of respect after hearing about his journey. Rather than opting for a big school where he might have been buried on the bench, Durbin chose Division III Washington University in St. Louis.

“I think that’s the most important thing, more than anything, is you’re playing,” Durbin told the Badger State Ball podcast in November. “You have to play. My goal growing up was — yeah, I wanted to play D1 — but I didn’t want to finish playing D1. I wanted to play professionally and into the big leagues.

“So it didn’t matter how I got there. Kids don’t realize…you’re so, even through high school and college, you’re so young that you can get so much better in a really quick amount of time if you really focus on it…I never got discouraged just because I was playing Division III baseball.”

As a father who’s trying to help his son continue his baseball career beyond high school, I’m privy to a lot of conversations with other parents, players, and evaluators. My social media algorithms also feed me a whole lot of content in that space, so I see a lot of this situation from both sides. There are a whole lot of players and parents who have unrealistic goals for their futures, many of which stem from a D1-or-bust mentality.

Now, some of that naturally stems from the notion that many D3 and NAIA schools are simply too expensive to consider. For instance, Durbin’s alma mater has a sticker price of roughly $100,000 annually. While much of that is inflated to reflect the school’s prowess, the average cost for students receiving aid is approximately $22,000 per year. That’s basically the all-in cost for a state school before aid, and not every kid wants to graduate with the equivalent of a mortgage in student loan debt hanging over them.

The flip side is that a lot of athletes prioritize the atmosphere and experience of a bigger school. Take Will Taylor, founder of The Baseball Bat Bros and one of the most influential figures in the bat industry right now. He opted to attend the University of Utah as a backup catcher, knowing he was never going to get significant playing time. But he wanted to play in bigger stadiums and enjoy himself on those stages before going on to something other than professional baseball.

Back to the trade itself, I’m not entirely sure how this benefits the Brewers. They just traded away their incumbent third baseman, along with former Cubs prospect Andruw Monasterio and catcher/infielder Anthony Siegler. Those latter players figured to be primary backups at third and/or second, so Milwaukee is left with much less depth. They did get infielder David Hamilton, who’s more of a second baseman, but the other two players coming from Boston are lefty pitchers.

Seems like the Brewers have another move up their sleeve, so be on the lookout for that.

Cubs Embracing Culture Shift

After winning 92 games and competing for a spot in the NLCS, there was a sense early in the offseason that the Cubs would be content to maintain the status quo. Then came a trade for Edward Cabrera and a big-boy offer to Alex Bregman, both of whom elevate the team’s outlook. Though the expectations should always be high for one of the league’s flagship teams, everyone understands the assignment as spring training nears its official opening.

“Winning brought such a great vibe to Wrigley,” Jameson Taillon told reporters. “I think it was kind of a culture shift for our organization, for everyone to see that the standard now is to make the playoffs.

“We should expect to be playing in October every single year.”

Not just playing in October, but winning postseason games and series. That should be aided by the trade above, which followed the departure of ace Freddy Peralta, but we’ve seen the Brewers maintain momentum despite big losses in the past. Rather than slowing down after trading away elite arms, it’s as though they drop ballast and find ways to get better.

Of course, the Cubs are doing the exact opposite this season. They’re currently right up against the first luxury tax payroll penalty and are seemingly comfortable going over, whether that’s with another spring addition or something big at the trade deadline. The Cardinals are punting on at least this season, so that helps. And even with their shrewd moves, the Reds and Pirates should not be able to challenge for the division crown all season long.

Famous last words, right?

“We’re a better ballclub,” Matthew Boyd declared. “With the moves that were made, I think it’s obvious.”

We’ve already gotten glimpses of the work being put in by early arrivals to Sloan Park, and this weekend will bring the start of official activities. As of this publication, we’re just 11 days away from the first spring game. I suppose that means we’re also that far away from wild overreactions to both the good and bad performances.

Pirates Sign Ozuna

Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna is back in the NL Central after agreeing to a one-year, $12 million deal with the Pirates. He’ll earn $10.5 million this season, then has a $1.5 million buyout on a $16 million mutual option for 2027 that likely won’t be exercised. Ozuna cooled off a bit last season, hitting only 21 homers with a 114 wRC+ after hammering 79 dingers over the two previous years in Atlanta.

He has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his career, with three seasons each of batting over .300 or below .233 between the Marlins, Cardinals, and Braves. It’ll be interesting to see how the right-handed batter will fare in Pittsburgh, a park that doesn’t really play to his strengths. To wit, his 238 expected home runs there are fewer than in all but two other MLB parks (Detroit – 233, Kansas City – 216).

Even if Ozuna’s power is tamped down a bit, he should remain an on-base machine who can force pitchers to work harder than they’d prefer. If the Pirates’ young pitching takes another step forward, they could make some noise.

More News and Notes

• Interestingly enough, the Red Sox and Pirates were among “at least five teams” reportedly discussing Isaac Paredes with the Astros. We can take the Sox out of the equation, and the Pirates just added a righty masher who could be a poor fit for their park. Paredes is one of the purest pull hitters in the game, and his 57 expected career homers at PNC tell us he’d be losing a lot of potential output.
• Munetaka Murakami has arrived at Camelback Ranch, but the White Sox misspelled his name on his locker placard. Par for the course.
• The Sox have also agreed to a one-year deal with righty Erick Fedde, but no word yet on whether they will goof up his name as well.
• The Twins have signed well-traveled infielder Gio Urshela to a minor league deal.
• Far be it for me to cause a stir here, but I really enjoyed Bad Bunny’s halftime performance. Not because I could understand the lyrics, because I most certainly could not, but because of the joy radiating from the screen. A friend of mine said, “It felt happier than we all deserve right now,” and I think that sums up my feelings.
• Seeing all the people dancing reminded me of my trip to Puerto Rico years ago. We stayed at the El San Juan hotel, and the lobby would fill up each evening with guests and locals alike dancing to live music.
• It was also cool to see Ronald Acuña Jr. among the folks hanging out of the “porch” during the performance. Also present were Pedro Pascal, Jessica Alba, Cardi B (who also happens/ed to be Patriots receiver Stefon Diggs’ girlfriend), and Karol G.

Trailer Time

I had heard about The Adventures of Cliff Booth, but didn’t clock this movie as such right away. It was clear right away that Quentin Tarantino’s fingerprints were all over it, but there was a different vibe from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. That’s because QT wrote the script for this sequel, which is directed by David Fincher. I am very excited for this Netflix film, though they’re still being cagey about its release date. Sounds like it should be available this summer.