The Rundown: Michael Busch Apparently Doesn’t Exist, Palencia Is Cubs Closer, How to Watch MLB.TV, Carroll Will Miss WBC

With all due respect to big guys called Tiny or Morgan Freeman playing Red in The Shawshank Redemption, I like it when people and things have names that accurately describe them. Like Foolish Baseball, the YouTube channel and social media account run by Bailey Freeman. During Monday’s edition of MLB Now on MLB Network, Freeman revealed his list of the top 10 first basemen right now:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2. Pete Alonso
3. Nick Kurtz
4. Matt Olson
5. Bryce Harper
6. Freddie Freeman
7. Rafael Devers
8. Ben Rice
9. Vinnie Pasquantino
10. Andrew Vaughn (WC)

Huh, no mention of the man who finished tied for fifth among all first basemen with 3.5 fWAR and second in both home runs (34) and wRC+ (140). Only Also bested Michael Busch in those latter two categories, and he needed 117 more plate appearances to get those four extra dingers. Busch was only one point away in slugging, but his .261 ISO was nine points ahead of Alonso for best among everyone at the position.

So how is Busch not a top-10 first baseman? Freeman — Bailey, not Freddie — explained his rationale on X after catching loads of flak for his omission.

Fine, I do want the smoke. Michael Busch started only 24% of Cubs games vs LHP last year. I think it’s a little disingenuous to compare his rate stats to guys who play every day. Even Ben Rice got more looks vs lefties with Goldy as platoon partner and an inflexible roster.

Okay, Rice’s 104 wRC+ in 119 PAs against lefties was better than Busch’s 81 in 95 trips to the plate with southpaws on the mound. But it’s completely unserious to include Pasquantino and his 1.5 fWAR with a 116 wRC+ (both 14th). Giving the No. 10 spot to Andrew Vaughn feels like little more than rage bait, as the former White Sox infielder rode an incredible hot streak with the Brewers to a 0.6 fWAR that got him to exactly replacement level over his five-year career.

Can Vaughn continue to replicate the 142 wRC+ he generated over 254 PAs following his trade to Milwaukee? He slugged .493 with a .186 ISO and 47.4% hard-hit rate, the latter of which is right in line with his 46.5% career mark. Vaughn’s .328 BABIP with the Brewers, however, was nearly 40 points above his overall mark, indicating there was a little good fortune involved. What’s more, his nine post-trade homers only equate to 21 over the same number of PAs as Busch.

Even applying individual subjectivity and factors like age curves and ballpark changes (Pasquantino will benefit from Kauffman Stadium’s shortened fences), leaving Busch off this list is…well, it’s foolish. Assuming the right-handed-hitting Tyler Austin serves in a platoon role similar to that of Justin Turner, thus limiting Busch’s exposure to lefties, that doesn’t take away from what should be elite overall performance from one of the best first basemen in the game.

Between Busch and Nico Hoerner, who would you say is the most underrated among Cubs fans and baseball fans in general? I think I’d actually go with Busch on both fronts.

Counsell Says Palencia Will Close

It’s been widely assumed since the Cubs didn’t go out and pay big money for a closer, but Craig Counsell confirmed for media members on Wednesday morning that Daniel Palencia will be the closer. The manager offered Jesse Rogers and other reporters a definitive “Yes” when asked about Palencia getting the 9th inning, which is a little out of the ordinary.

Counsell is typically a little more cagey about these things, especially when we’re talking about the first official day of workouts for pitchers and catchers, so avoiding tropes caught even Rogers a little off-guard. Bruce Levine further noted that Palencia has learned from his failures last year and has a calmer, more confident demeanor. He’ll also be leaning into his non-fastballs a bit more.

As long as he can stay away from the walks that plagued him earlier in his career, Palencia should rack up plenty of saves at the end of a reconfigured bullpen.

How to Watch Cubs on MLB.TV

This was a topic in the comments section recently, and it’s also gotten a lot of hype following the news that several more teams have turned their streaming rights over to the league. You can get all the requisite information from Anthony Castrovince over at MLB.com, but I want to focus on just the Cubs for now. The long and short of it is that nothing really changes for Cubs fans.

If you’re local, you can subscribe to Marquee Sports Network directly or through a TV provider that includes Marquee in one of its packages. Because I know it’ll come up if I don’t mention it, YouTube TV and Dish Network don’t offer Marquee and won’t be doing so in the future. Out-of-market consumers can still get the games on MLB.TV, and they don’t need an additional subscription to ESPN Unlimited, as had been previously reported.

Existing MLB.TV subscribers will be renewed automatically through their account and can continue to access streaming content through the MLB app as they have in the past. They can also access MLB.TV via the ESPN app, which is where new subscribers will need to go in order to sign up. And while you aren’t required to subscribe to ESPN Unlimited, you will get a free trial for one month.

There are no changes to the Extra Innings package, though prices may vary by provider. The biggest changes will be for in-market fans of teams whose broadcasts are now handled by MLB, as MLB.TV blacks out local games. Those fans can bundle their team’s local service for an additional $100 per season or $20 per month over the $99.99/$19.99 prices for the base package.

That’s the same as an in-market Cubs fan subscribing to both Marquee and MLB.TV, except that they can’t bundle the two since Marquee isn’t part of MLB’s offering…yet. As we’ve covered here in the past, the outlook for the Cubs-owned network doesn’t look incredibly sunny. There’s even been speculation about a potential merger with Chicago Sports Network, though that platform may also have to turn its broadcasts over to the league.

For now, though, it’s pretty much status quo for Cubs fans when it comes to how you will watch games this season. Well, except for Marquee slashing its spring training coverage by two-thirds over just two years ago. I was surprised by how many fans told me they don’t care about Cactus League games, but it’s more about the principle of a team-owned network carrying so few games. Marquee showed only 17 of the Cubs’ 25 games last season after being at 24 the previous year, and they will only be at 11 this year.

Only seven of those games are at Sloan Park, and one is the Spring Breakout prospect showcase. Not a good look.

More News and Notes

• Jose Quintana has agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal with the Rockies.
• Corbin Carroll has withdrawn from the WBC due to a broken hamate bone suffered during Tuesday’s batting practice. He’s scheduled for surgery on Wednesday and is likely to miss most or all of camp, with a strong possibility that he remains on the IL to start the regular season.
• Jackson Holliday likewise underwent surgery to repair a hamate fracture suffered during live BP a few days ago, and he may also miss the start of the regular season.
• Francisco Lindor is also being evaluated for a hamate injury and could face a similar prognosis for surgery and rehab. Update: Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has announced that Lindor will undergo surgery; he faces a recovery timeline similar to the others.
• We got into some hamate talk several years ago, but I want to discuss it a little bit more here since it’s a fairly common injury among baseball players. The hamate is a wedge-shaped carpal bone in the palm, characterized by a bony prominence known as the hook. That hook plays a role in gripping by serving as a pulley for flexor tendons, and it is prone to breaking due to direct contact with the knob of a bat.
• Treatment can include casting, but surgery to remove the hook can lead to faster recovery and the elimination of reinjury risk. One way to reduce the likelihood of hamate fractures is by alleviating direct pressure by opting for a non-traditional knob, like an axe, bell, or pommel.
• The Rangers are reuniting with lefty Jordan Montgomery on a one-year MLB deal that will pay him $1.25 million. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the deal, adding that Montgomery will open the season on the 60-day IL while recovering from Tommy John surgery last March.
• The southpaw was one of the prized free agents of the 2023-24 offseason, but he ended up firing agent Scott Boras after settling for a pillow contract with the Diamondbacks. Montgomery’s poor performance led owner Ken Kendrick to call the deal a “horrible decision,” and the Snakes dumped the salary in a trade with the Braves.
• Atlanta has placed righty Spencer Schwellenbach on the 60-day IL due to right elbow inflammation that may require surgery.
• Zac Gallen, you are an Atlanta Brave! Well, not officially, but you can see how a match could be made. Whatever the case, I remain wholly pessimistic about the Cubs signing Gallen

Trailer Time

I didn’t think it was possible to spice up the Gateway City, but that might be the case in a new HBO Max show called DTF St. Louis. Features Jason Bateman, David Harbour, and Linda Cardellini, this dark comedy involves a love triangle in which one member ends up dead. That’s not a spoiler, it’s literally how the trailer opens.