The Rundown: 10 Bold-ish Predictions, Cubs Reportedly Willing to Boost PCA Offer, Don’t Touch Mo Baller, Gavin Lux Shrunk

Would you believe me if I told you I forgot all about March Madness until after the first games had tipped yesterday? Well, it’s true. Younger me would have found that unthinkable, but I guess that’s what happens when you get older and your favorite team misses the dance despite spending more money on basketball than any other team in the country. There’s a lot of nuance to that $32 million figure, namely the inclusion of buyout payments for Mike Woodson and his staff, plus another to pry Darian DeVries away from West Virginia.

Regardless of how much they spent on what and whom, IU’s repeated failure to put an acceptably competitive basketball team together looks even worse after they turned the football team from laughingstock to national champs in two years. Why am I talking about college sports on my Cubs blog? Well, because IU kind of reminds me of the Cubs when it comes to having a massive fanbase and all the necessary resources to produce a winner every season.

This season should be at least as successful as last, though most expectations are that it needs to be better. The Cubs can’t just shoot for second place in the division and another postseason flameout, especially after signing Alex Bregman and trading Owen Caissie for Edward Cabrera. The season is right around the corner now, and I’m pretty much over spring training at this point. These last few Cactus League games feel a lot like the NCAA tourney play-ins, which I still firmly believe should be for the 16 seeds.

I suppose I could watch the Cubs/A’s game via the Marquee app on my phone tonight, but it’s a split-squad affair that will probably just be a syndication of the Athletics’ broadcast. Unless the information is incorrect, Marquee is showing the road half of today’s contests while the game at Sloan has zero Cubs coverage. What the hell is that all about?

Playing hard to get is one thing, but the Cubs have gotten to the point where they’re actively alienating folks. Maybe that’s just my baseball doldrums talking.

10 Bold Cubs Predictions

Both MLB.com and The Athletic published their bold predictions this morning, so I figured I’d join them by laying out some of my own. I don’t like that one has the Pirates winning the NL Central and the other has the Reds winning a playoff game at home, nor do I care for talk of a Jacob Misiorowski Cy Young win. But that’s the whole point of these things, which is why I’m going to keep mine a little closer to reality.

1. Ian Happ posts his fifth straight season with 116-122 wRC+
2. Seiya Suzuki hits 40 homers
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong goes 30-30 again
4. Justin Steele returns in the first half of May
5. The Cubs will win 93 games and take the Central
6. Moisés Ballesteros wins NL Rookie of the Year
7. Daniel Palencia records 40 saves, most for the Cubs since Rod Beck had 51 in 1998
8. Michael Busch will lead all first basemen with a 145 wRC+
9. Nico Hoerner will bat .300
10. Matt Shaw will get playing time at seven different positions

I was thinking about building out a little more context for each of those, but then I realized it would just open up with me explaining yet again why Happ is much better than so many people seem to believe.

Cubs Open to Increasing PCA’s Extension Offer

Even though it came well before his first-half explosion, the Cubs’ extension offer to PCA last season was laughable. With a reported maximum value of something like $75 million with options, there was no way the budding superstar and his reps would have even considered it. The conversation has remained open, though, and the Cubs are aware that they’ll have to get to nine figures to make something happen.

Jon Heyman included Crow-Armstrong on his list of extension candidates, noting the club is “believed willing to go significantly higher” than last year’s bid of $66 million. That’s obviously lower than what is mentioned above, likely because it’s a base figure. Either way, nothing is considered imminent.

Heyman also lists Hoerner as an extension candidate, though there’s really no meat on the bone as far as reporting. I’m also completely out of mental gas, so let’s just move on.

More News and Notes

• Craig Counsell joked that he’s told the Cubs’ hitting coaches to stay away from Mo Baller. The team has tremendous confidence that the hitterish fire hydrant will continue to produce loads of contact as his power increases, and Counsell wants to let Ballesteros’s natural feel for the game guide him.
• Mets radio broadcaster Howie Rose has announced that this will be his final year in the booth.
• The Brewers optioned righty starter Logan Henderson to Triple-A, so he won’t open the season as part of the rotation. That appears to be more about building him up a little more after missing some time due to elbow soreness, so he could be back in Milwaukee before long.
• Gavin Lux must have gone for a very cold swim because the Rays have him listed at 5-foot-11 after the Reds had him at 6-foot-2. It’s quite common for athletes in all sports to exaggerate their height, but this is a bit much. The change is likely due to MLB’s strict measurement guidelines following the implementation of ABS.
• As Joe Pampliano explained, players must be measured with no hat or shoes, and with their knees exposed. And because we all get a wee bit smaller throughout the day, all measurements must be conducted between 10a and 12p local time.
• One factor in Lux’s substantial shrinkage may be the weight of Tropicana Field’s roof. Pieces of the old roof that was destroyed by Hurricane Milton will be sewn into the sponsorship patches the Rays will wear on their uniforms this year. The city of St. Petersburg spent over $50 million to ready the Trop for play in 2026, including new turf, lights, and more. That’s quite an outlay given the team’s plans to build a new ballpark, but it beats playing in a minor league stadium again.
• Didn’t mean to bury this, but added it after the fact since Bleacher Nation just made the announcement: Jacob Zanolla will be joining the BN crew in the near future. Definitely disappointing to lose a young man who’s brought a ton of passion and strong reporting to CI in his tenure, but I wish Jacob nothing but the best.
• I’d be lying if I said this didn’t scare me quite a bit, though, as our staff has been whittled down to what can generously be called a skeleton crew. It’s never been easy to produce at the volume I do, and I fear the weight of carrying this whole thing almost by myself has created cracks that are getting more visible by the day. Maybe I just need a nap.

Trailer Time

The cast alone is enough to get me to watch Wild Horse Nine, a black comedy thriller written and directed by Martin McDonagh (In Bruges, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Banshees of Inisherin). Starring John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Ailín Salas, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey, this film centers on a pair of CIA officers dispatched to Easter Island shortly before the Chilean coup in 1973.

This is probably one I’ll wait to stream, but it looks hilarious.