Quantifying Hope: Cubs Lead NL Central with 47.3% Playoff Odds

These first few QH posts inevitably draw more than a few side-eyed glances and derogatory comments, understandably so, but that’s the pitfall of a weekly post about the Cubs’ playoff odds. The good news for all of us is that these early columns are also incredibly short because there’s really no need to provide context. That means we don’t need to dive into this being a three-team race in most experts’ eyes, or how Matthew Boyd putting up a stinker really doesn’t matter.

What does matter is playing better over the next 161 games than they did in the first. I would say having the entire infield locked up for the next four years is also a big deal, whether it’s the production of those individuals or what it means for the construction of future rosters. Having cost certainty is as important as anything for a front office intent on maintaining a winner for more than just two or three years, and the Cubs have that.

They’ve also got four $100 million men now, two of whom were just minted in the last few days. After Pete Crow-Armstrong inked a five-year, $115 million extension on the eve of the regular season, Nico Hoerner agreed to a six-year, $141 million deal of his own. That is the fourth-largest contract ever for a second baseman, and the $23.5 million average annual value pushes him to third on the team.

Both contracts could end up looking like steals for the Cubs based on each player’s production, and their team-friendly nature will allow Jed Hoyer to keep adding in free agency. That should provide fans with plenty of hope for the remainder of the season and the next few to follow.

As we get deeper into the season, we’ll get additional context around how the Cubs are playing relative to the rest of the division and league.