Cubs Reportedly ‘Eyeing’ Free Agent Righty Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito has been the subject of speculation for a while now, and yours truly even got a little nod when Alex Cohen and Lance Brozdowski discussed the Cubs’ possible interest on Marquee Sports Network over the weekend. Even with Matthew Boyd expected back after a minimum stay on the IL and Justin Steele scheduled to return by early June, the Cubs’ pitching depth has been tested early. They failed the latest exam when Javier Assad was ambushed by the Phillies on Monday night.
Could Lucas Giolito be a good addition to the Cubs rotation?
Alex Cohen thinks he could be some nice insurance for the team ? pic.twitter.com/vgrHn72X80
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 12, 2026
As it turns out, all the smoke surrounding Giolito was more than just empty theories from fanboys and bloggers. Several writers at The Athletic reported on Tuesday that the Cubs and Padres are “monitoring the situation” as the 2019 All-Star and former Cy Young contender remains unsigned. After signing a two-year, $38.5 millon deal with the Red Sox in January of 2024, he made just two spring starts before going down with a blown elbow. He came back last season to pitch 145 innings over 26 starts, triggering a $19 million mutual option for 2026 that he turned down to seek a bigger deal.
Such a deal obviously never materialized, or at least he wasn’t getting offers he was willing to take. That’s how he explained it recently, saying that he’s continuing to throw live in order to stay prepared for when an acceptable offer finally comes his way.
“The last few months have been very strange, to where talks seem like they’re heating up, and then it’s like, “Oh, okay, never mind,'” Giolito told the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. “I just wanna play for close to what my value is. Everything is based on these models now, right?
“Everyone uses projection and models and things like that to kinda determine — and my agency does the same thing — so it’s like, “Alright, cool, give me something that’s relatively close to that and let’s go and get it.”
The only problem is that teams are going to reduce his value in accordance with the time he’s already missed, plus what he’s yet to miss even if he signs tomorrow. Throwing a 75-pitch bullpen on your own, or maybe to high school hitters, isn’t nearly the same as being in camp for spring training. Even if he was able to ramp quickly, I’d wager there’s a sizable gap between how the Cubs and other teams — The Athletic specifically notes the Padres, though their courtship seems less likely — value Giolito versus how he and his agency value him.
While last season’s 3.41 ERA was the best of his career in a full(ish) season, his 5.01 expected ERA was higher than any season since 2018 with the White Sox (5.25). His fastball was up to 93.3 mph, his highest mark since 2021, but even replicating that would put him nearly two ticks below the average for right-handed starters this season. Once a former top prospect who was the centerpiece of a big trade between the White Sox and Nationals, Giolito profiles as a mid-rotation starter at best.
The Cubs may need to bolster their pitching staff, but they’ve long been reluctant to spend big money to do so. Making a desperation play to overspend on a guy who will turn 32 in July and whose performance hasn’t exactly been consistent over the last several years doesn’t seem like a Jed Hoyer play. Working out an incentive-laden pillow deal that could see Giolito rebuild his value for another run at free agency next year, however, makes a lot more sense.
Going for 2-3 years could even work out well since the Cubs figure to lose Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, and possibly Boyd after this season. The Cubs need help and Giolito needs to find a new team, so I could see something being worked out before long. Then again, I could just as easily see another team being more willing to give more money/years and snapping him up for something closer to where Giolito values himself. Either way, I think we’ll find out before long.
