Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/29/26): Hoerner at SS, Conforto in RF, Taillon Tossing
Cue Justin Timberlake, because it’s gonna be May the next time the Cubs have a game after today. Getaway Day on the West Coast means it’s a later start than in most cases, but that’s a helluva lot better than the last two late-night affairs. This also appears to be the most winnable game of the series, though all bets are off once it starts.
Jameson Taillon got a no-decision in his last start after giving up four runs on four hits and three walks against the Dodgers. He did his job, though, keeping LA within striking distance for an eventual comeback win. That’s been the 34-year-old’s MO this year as his evolution from hard-throwing prospect to grindy veteran continues. His curveball (to lefties) and sweeper (righties) have stood out, while his cutter has bounced back nicely after being a subpar pitch last year.
Taillon’s fastball velocity is down to 91.5 mph after sitting at 92.3 in each of the last two seasons and 93.7 when he first joined the Cubs. That puts him in MLB’s 12th percentile, though he makes up for some of that with 88th-percentile extension. He is actually releasing the ball closer to the plate than ever before, getting to 6.9 feet after being as low as 6.2 earlier in his career.
This is a guy who knows how to pitch, and he’s very familiar with the hitters he’ll face today. Over 90 combined at-bats, these Padres are slashing .233/.258/.367 with just two homers, three walks, and 17 strikeouts. Petco Park has been pretty hitter-friendly and may play more so this afternoon without that evening marine layer, so avoiding costly longballs should be Taillon’s goal.
Again, it’s a matter of ensuring his offense stays within striking range, which isn’t much to ask with the way this group can score in bunches. Nico Hoerner is leading off and playing short as Dansby Swanson rests his butt cramp, then it’s Moisès Ballesteros at DH, Alex Bregman at third, and Ian Happ in left. Michael Brings plays first, Michael Conforto is in right, Matt Shaw is at second, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Miguel Amaya bats last behind the plate.
They’re facing right-hander Matt Waldron, who got a late start to the 2026 season after undergoing surgery in February to address a severe infection from a hemorrhoid. Sounds like Swanson isn’t the only one who’s had to deal with a pain in the ass. He’s had a rough time ramping back up after missing most of spring training, and he’s allowed six earned runs in each of his first two starts for the Padres. Both were on the road, so maybe a little home cooking will help him out.
Not that Waldron is really used to calling the same place home for very long. During his debut season in 2023, he was called up from Triple-A El Paso five times. He spent a month in El Paso the following season, the only one in which he pitched more than 41.1 innings in the bigs. That was his best year by far, as he made 26 starts with one relief appearance and posted a 4.91 ERA over 146.2 innings.
Waldron missed over two months in 2025 with a left oblique injury — which is weird, because I thought only Cubs pitchers got hurt — then was optioned and recalled twice more. He’s done enough to remain at the periphery of the rotation, but there’s nothing to suggest he should be successful against the Cubs. Well, other than the fact that they always seem to struggle against guys who we all think they’ll light up.
Waldron’s fastball velocity and extension are right on par with Taillon, but the Padres righty only throws his about 21% of the time. That’s because he’s a knuckleballer who will throw the floater over 30% of the time. As fun as that pitch can be to watch, Waldron has never generated positive run value with it.
Matt Waldron throwing a Knuckleball with:
1. 17 inches of Glove Side Movement
2. 21 inches of Arm Side Movement pic.twitter.com/GnUNTWOjfO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) January 29, 2025
Knuckleballs are unpredictable by nature, but Waldron’s 81 mph offering has stayed up in the zone far too often in the early going. Because he lacks any other pitches that hitters have to beware, and because his velocity is well below-average, he’ll find himself in trouble quickly if the butterfly isn’t flapping its wings. The one thing working in his favor may be a lack of familiarity, as this Cubs roster has only faced him a total of seven times.
Five of those came from Conforto and the other two from Bregman, with a double by the former representing the only stats from either. No walks, no strikeouts, nothing else. If Waldron remains as inconsistent as he’s been to this point, the Cubs should produce plenty of baserunners with their patient approach. And if he keeps chucking hangers, they could bounce him early.
I really like this matchup for its novelty and what it could mean for a team that needs a win to escape California with an even record on the road swing. First pitch from San Diego is at 3:10pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
