Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/5/26): Bregman DH, Shaw at 3B, Taillon Tossing
The Cubs come into tonight’s game winners of 12 straight, with four of those wins coming via walk-off. That was the case last night at a damp Wrigley Field, as Michael Conforto capped off yet another W for a team that has embraced the chaos to make friends with good luck. They still have three more games against a Reds team that has looked quite spry in the early going, though Cincy’s own relationship with good fortune has taken a turn for the worse of late.
Jameson Taillon could use a little help tonight as he looks to build upon his recent success in spite of issues with the home run ball. The big righty has given up nine dingers over his last five starts, though he was only saddled with a loss in one of those. He’s done a good job of limiting the damage just enough to keep the Cubs within striking distance, and his task should be made a little easier by cool temps and wind blowing in from left.
Tonight’s lineup has been rearranged a little with a southpaw on the mound, but Nico Hoerner is still leading off at second base. Alex Bregman serves as the DH, Ian Happ is in left, and Seiya Suzuki cleans up in right. Dansby Swanson slides up to the five-hole, Michael Busch plays first, and Matt Shaw is across the diamond. Miguel Amaya is behind the plate and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center.
They’re up against Discount Logan Webb, aka Jesse Plemons’ stunt double, aka Andrew Abbott. The almost-27-year-old lefty burst onto the scene last season following strong campaigns in 2023 and ’24, earning an All-Star nod and finishing eighth in Cy Young voting. He fell off a bit starting in July, however, and it’s carried over into this season.
Through his first seven starts, Abbott has a 5.87 ERA with the lowest strikeout rate of his career and a walk rate roughly 50% higher than last season. It’s a group effort between all of his pitches, but the sweeper and changeup have been particularly ineffective. While those respective pitches represent only 17% and 20% of his total repertoire, their situational usage makes them stand out much more.
Abbott throws his fastball most often, with only minor differences in frequency between left- and right-handed batters. But the changeup makes up 26% of his pitches to righties, and the sweeper accounts for 40% of his throws to lefties. That has turned what were mild traditional splits into massive reverse numbers. Left-handed hitters are slashing .438/.455/.625 against him so far, with only that low walk rate looking good.
Right-handed hitters aren’t doing quite as well, but they’re still seeing him much better than in the past. One issue may be that Abbott’s arm slot has crept up to 52 degrees, four ticks higher than last year, at a time when most pitchers are getting lower. That doesn’t appear to have created different results in his vertical movement, but he’s generating less arm-side movement on the four-seam and changeup.
The sweeper is actually getting more depth and glove-side break than in the past, but that may actually be working to Abbott’s detriment because it’s carrying out of the zone more often. When he’s basically got two pitches for lefties, they can just spit on spin. Right-handed batters are clearly seeing him better than in the past, and they’re tracking that changeup too easily.
If his trends hold true tonight, the Cubs should be able to get much better results against him than they have in the past. Over 93 combined at-bats, this roster is batting just .183 with a .592 OPS when Abbott is on the mound. The Cubs have a 136 team wRC+ against southpaws this season, the best in MLB by 13 points, and I don’t think we’ll see Abbott suddenly reverting back to his stifling ways of last season.
There’s only one way to find out, and that will come at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
See you tonight!
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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 5, 2026
