AP Photo/Morry Gash

The Rundown: Brewers Increase Lead Over Cubs, Álvarez Well-Positioned for Triple Crown Run, Stones Drop New Vid

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterJuly 23, 2026

“I’ve got a story, ain’t got no moral. Let the bad guy win every once in a while.” – Will it Go ‘Round in Circles by Billy Preston

Is it too much to ask the Cubs to run off three more 10-game winning streaks? That may be the only hope they have of catching the Brewers. Milwaukee’s upcoming schedule is as soft as a black banana, so stacking wins is Option A and, unfortunately, Option B no longer exists. It seems so, anyway, as frustrating as that is for all fans of Chicago’s North Side Baseballers. The Cubs lost last night, and the Brewers won, increasing their lead to seven games.

Further, as I mentioned yesterday, the Cubs may eventually have to go through the Brewers to get to the World Series, and both teams will pursue similar pitchers at the trade deadline. Losing a home series against the Tigers without facing Tarik Skubal is unfathomable in a pennant race. Chicago should turn their focus to staving off the Phillies for the top Wild Card spot. It seems a little premature to concede the NL Central, but look at the upcoming schedule through the trade deadline and tell me where the Cubs can narrow the gap.

  • Milwaukee: vs. Rockies (3), at Giants (3), at Angels (3)
  • Chicago: at Pirates (3), at Cardinals (4), vs. Yankees (3)

The Phillies have series against the Yankees, Marlins, and Orioles before this year’s trading window closes. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has a chance to extend its lead over Chicago to double digits before August 3. That leaves Jed Hoyer with the task of determining which additions are necessary for a top two Wild Card spot, if any. Skubal, Reid Detmers, and Mason Miller may look a lot better to the Brewers than the Cubs.

Here’s where I disagree with that type of logic, however. Hoyer has repeatedly said since taking over for Theo Epstein that anything can happen if you can make the playoffs. If he believes that to be true, then why not arm up for an extended postseason run even if it means entering the festivities without a division championship? Which version of the 2026 Cubs does he believe in? Is it the team that won 20 of 23 or the one that lost 14 of 16? The answer is the modified mean. i.e., a team that plays about .573 baseball. That’s roughly one win more than Chicago’s current total, on pace to finish 93-69.

I hope that succinctly answers the rhetorical question asked by CI’s Duane Pesice yesterday.

There is no reason to add just for the sake of moral victories. Guys like Aaron Civale and David Peterson aren’t any stronger than the guys the front office added last year. Then again, Hoyer will tell you the Cubs were only a couple runs shy of reaching the NLCS, and it’s tough to argue. He went to the well with Matthew Boyd, Shōta Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon against the Brewers last October. The deciding match pitted Chicago’s bullpen against Jacob Misiorowski, though Trevor Megill officially started Game 5. Call me crazy, but I believe Skubal gives the Cubs an edge over Misiorowski in a five-game set where both pitchers are likely to start the final game. Skubal also gives Chicago a very good shot of winning a Game 1 tilt in Milwaukee, where the Cubs lost 9-3 in 2025.

Finally, if we’re not loading up to make a run for a World Series championship, what are we doing? Yes, Carter Hawkins will wear his 2032 quote forever, but is that really what’s going on at Clark and Addison? The Cubs have proven they can beat any team when their offense is clicking. Why not give them the hedge of elite pitching for the days when their bats aren’t as robust as we’d all prefer?

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

Who wishes Kyle Tucker was still playing for the Cubs?

Including the luxury tax penalty, the Dodgers are paying Tucker $119.7 million this season, more than the Opening Day payrolls of 11 teams, per Tom Verducci of SI.com. He’s posted career full-season worsts in bat speed (71.3), exit velocity (88.8), hard-hit percentage (39%), rollover groundballs (22.4%), barrel rate (5.8%), two-strike hitting (.165) and runners in scoring position (.247). He’s playing at a level considered below replacement.

Maybe the Dodgers should have given him more money upfront. The cost of living in Los Angeles runs roughly 50% higher than the national average, according to RentCafe (52% higher) and Salary.com (43%).

Central Intelligence

How About That!

Yordan Álvarez is the first AL or NL player to lead his league in all three Triple Crown categories this late in a season since Aaron Judge on Sept. 28, 2022

The Yankees and Phillies have ambitious wish lists they hope to fill before August 3.

Playing on an awful team is “like pulling a tractor trailer,” according to ex-Cub Jamie Moyer.

Boston’s winning streak was stopped at 14 games, but the Red Sox rode that run into a top 10 position in ESPN’s latest power rankings. The Cubs are sixth, in case you’re wondering.

Kyle Bradish stopped Boston’s streak in his first start since signing a $90 million extension with the Orioles.

A dominant bullpen led by Jordan Hicks, Grant Taylor, and Bryan Hudson is keeping the White Sox atop the AL Central.

Apropos of Nothing

“It’s hard when you see other teams you’re competing with get really good players, but those aren’t decisions you’re making in the moment. [They’re] decisions you’re making over the course of the week and month. It takes some discipline, especially in a moment when you see things moving that way. But we were able to stick to our approach and felt really good about the adds we were able to make.

“Teams are trying to find that guy that can lock down the 8th or 9th inning, but that also costs a lot. That costs a lot of future wins. We have a responsibility to the 2025 Cubs but also the 2032 Cubs. That’s not always popular in the moment, but it’s decisions we have to make.” – Hawkins, 8/8/25

The Cubs traded for Willi Castro, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, and Andrew Kittredge. Carlos Santana, who was 2-for-19 in limited September play and subsequently left off the playoff roster, was added after the deadline as a minor league free agent. Hawkins punts better than Tory Taylor of the Bears.

Extra Innings

You knew Seiya Suzuki went yard as soon as you heard the sound of the ball off of his bat. By the way, enough with the lowercase, already. What a lazy look.

They Said It

  • “You have to go [logically] into the deadline. You have to think about it analytically. Getting a bye is effectively winning a series and weakening your opponent in the next series. That’s a really big deal. If the odds say that you can do that, that’s a different equation than if not. You have to be aware of those things, and we certainly will be.” – Hoyer
  • “I try to not get overly emotional about it. I try to stick to the numbers and make sure we’re doing things that make sense on paper. But I think our position-playing group is really, really good. … That’s a group that could win a lot of games in October. Obviously, the challenge for us has simply been pitching and pitching injuries. The whole team matters.” – Hoyer

Thursday Walk-Up Song

A new video by the Rolling Stones? Sounds like something that would have made the Some Girls album. It’s no instant classic, but it’s catchy, and it will grow on you.

 

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterJuly 23, 2026
Cubs Insider © Copyright 2026, All Rights Reserved