Quantifying Hope: Cubs’ Odds Holding Steady at Nearly 99%

The Cubs have remained somewhat in limbo over the last week, sitting a few games behind the Brewers and a few games ahead of the next team in the Wild Card standings. And while those respective gaps have each moved in the wrong direction since last week, the overall odds have seen only a nominal change. That may not be the case over the next three weeks, however, as the Cubs head to Arizona to play the Diamondbacks after wrapping up in Seattle.

The D-backs are currently just a game out of the third Wild Card spot, so they’re going to be looking to strike. Then the Cubs get a day off before hosting the flailing Reds at Wrigley, after which comes the most important stretch of the season. Beginning on August 31, the Cubs and Brewers will play seven times in 10 days. Going either 4-3 or 3-4 probably won’t change much, but winning or losing big could shift the balance of power in the division and the league.

If things hold steady until then, the Brewers’ five-game lead could either evaporate entirely or swell to unreachable double digits. And with just a four-game lead over the Phillies, losing badly to the Brewers could see the Cubs fall out of the top Wild Card spot. Losing home-field advantage for that whole series might not actually be that bad, though, as the Cubs are nearly as good on the road and the Phils have actually been slightly worse at home.

I’ll cut this off here due to the lack of drama over the last week, but the next three installments figure to be much more interesting in terms of the standings.