Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/25/26): Holmes Looks to Make Chase Field No-Fly Zone

The Cubs won a relatively forgettable game last night that was made interesting only because of a heated verbal exchange between opposing bench coaches Ryan Flaherty and Jeff Banister. The accusation that third base coach Quintin Berry was spying on Merrill Kelly‘s pitches and relaying them to his batters probably would have created a strong potential for retaliation in bygone days, but we’re unlikely to see any lingering effects. Maybe a little more jaw-jacking than usual if there’s an inside pitch or a hard slide.

It may not matter if Clay Holmes keeps pitching like he has the last two times out, with just one run allowed over 12 innings. He took the loss against the White Sox because he got no run support, but you’ll take that effort any day of the week. Holmes has been getting his usual complement of grounders, and more of the same tonight should put his team in position to win again.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman handles the hot corner. Ian Happ patrols left, Nico Hoerner is at short, and Pedro Ramírez takes second. Michael Conforto, who got a boost from his grandmother’s meatballs in Seattle, is the DH and Miguel Amaya is behind the plate.

They’re facing 27-year-old Brandon Pfaadt, who is having a breakout season after posting a 5.13 ERA over his first three campaigns. It didn’t start out very well, as Pfaadt was moved to the bullpen after giving up 11 runs in his first three starts. He worked irregularly for 10 appearances and was then optioned to Triple-A Reno so he could stretch back out as a starter. Though he doesn’t seem to have changed much, the results improved dramatically.

Over his first nine starts since being promoted back to the majors on June 30, Pfaadt allowed just seven earned runs over 54.2 innings (1.15 ERA). The only home run he gave up came in that first game back, so he went eight starts in a row without a longball. That changed last week, as he gave up five runs on seven hits with three leaving the yard. He did manage to strike out eight batters with no walks in an eventual no-decision.

Pfaadt isn’t too dissimilar from Kelly in that he’s a crafty righty who gets by with a 93 mph four-seam/sinker combo and a variety of secondaries. He’ll go mainly fastball, change, curve, and cutter to left-handed hitters; righties see mostly sinker, sweeper, and fastball. The changeup hasn’t worked all that well this season, which helps to explain why his splits are a little more pronounced than before.

Pfaadt also seems to be benefiting from a little more good fortune, with a .261 BABIP against that is about 40 points below his previous career average. His 17.1% strikeout rate is in the 12th percentile, so he relies on getting outs via contact.  It’s a little odd that he’s held opponents to a lower average and slugging percentage in Arizona, where the ball tends to carry a little better, but that three-homer game coming in Boston really hurt his road numbers.

In addition to his season numbers, Pfaadt’s career results against these Cubs hitters offer reason to believe some regression is due. Over 85 total at-bats, the Cubs are slashing .165/.220/.318 with three homers — two by Conforto and the other by Tyrone Taylor — against him. Pfaadt faced the Cubs in relief earlier this year, giving up two runs on four hits and three walks in just 2.1 innings of work, so I think we’re likely to see them get over on him once again.

First pitch is at 9:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.