Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/26/26): Boyd Bump Day in Rubber Match
The Cubs sandwiched a streak of 30 unanswered runs between walk-off losses and are now in danger of dropping their second road series in a row after winning nine in a row. A bullpen that had been looking better suddenly appears wobbly, though reinforcements are on the way. Until then, they’ll need to take this game so they can head into an off day and a rash of NL Central rivals starting this weekend.
Matthew Boyd hasn’t looked sharp since the trade deadline, with 17 earned runs allowed over his last four starts. His strikeout rate has plummeted to 10.3%, well under half of his career average, as both his fastball and changeup have gotten decidedly poor results. He’s fared well against these Diamondbacks hitters in the past, so maybe this will be a get-right game for him.
Pete Crow-Armstrong will lead off in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right and Alex Bregman at DH. Michael Busch is at first, Nico Hoerner is the shortstop, Tyrone Taylor is in left, and Pedro Ramírez plays third. Carson Kelly does the catching and Gabriel Arias gets his first Cubs start at second base.
It’s not going to be easy for them against stout lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who comes into this one with a 2.61 ERA and a 13-4 record. Even those of us who don’t put much stock in pitcher wins can acknowledge that his record is indicative of someone who’s pitching very well. It’s not as though he’s giving up five runs and getting bailed out by his offense or anything.
That said, Rodriguez does appear to be getting a little lucky. His 4.60 expected ERA and 3.79 FIP indicate as much, and his 17.3% strikeout rate tells us he’s very reliant on outs via contact. He’s gotten good results despite giving up a lot of contact in the air by working the corners to avoid barrels, plus he’s kept the ball in the zone enough to limit walks.
No other pitcher I’ve profiled this season does as good a job of locating at the edges of the zone. His 92 mph fastball is consistently at the upper reaches or above; the 86 mph changeup has a hot spot at the lower arm-side corner; the 89 mph cutter dots the middle of the glove-side border; the 80 mph curve most often lands in the lower glove-side corner; and the 92 mph sinker hits either the upper arm-side corner or the bottom-middle of the zone.
Roriguez’s ability to go up, down, in, and out is what has made him successful almost out of nowhere in his third season with the Diamondbacks. His numbers from the past two seasons were worse across the board, but he ditched his slider in favor of more curves and changeups. That has added more depth to play well off the fastball and sinker.
He’s been more effective at home, particularly against righties with that changeup getting a lot of usage. I would normally like this matchup for the Cubs, but something gives me a bad feeling about this afternoon. Maybe that means they’ll go HAM on Rodriguez. First pitch is at 2:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
