Quantifying Hope: Cubs’ Odds Barely Impacted by Disappointing Road Trip
The Cubs dropped four of six during their recent road trip, losing three in walk-off fashion, but the disappointing results hardly put a dent in their postseason probability. After hovering around 99% for the last two weeks, they took only a slight dip to 98.1% heading into their weekend series with the Reds. That’s good, but the path to the playoffs has narrowed significantly just the same.
The Brewers won each of their last two games to inflate their NL Central lead to seven games, while the Phillies and Padres both won to shrink the gap in the Wild Card standings. That all means the Cubs are actually a game and a half closer to being out of the postseason picture than they are to winning the division. And depending on how this weekend goes, it’s possible their seven upcoming games with the Brewers won’t really matter.
As amazing as it would be to see, it’s not realistic for the Cubs to sweep both of those sets. That means they really need to be within five games by the time the Brewers get to Wrigley on Monday, and even that might be a bridge too far. What’s more, the Phillies are in Anaheim to face a team that is 30 games under as of Friday morning.
There’s a saying that goes something like: You don’t have to run faster than the bear; you just have to run faster than the person next to you. The Cubs sure as hell aren’t outrunning the Brewers right now, and they’re steadily losing ground to the other runners. Not a perfect analogy considering that the Cubs are the ones chasing the Brewers and being chased by the Phils, Pads, and D-backs, but still.
That’s better than being chaste, which is to say they still give a f*ck. Let’s hope the same can’t be said for the Reds, who went through the annual late-season ritual of placing players on waivers in the hope that another team would pick up the tab for what’s left of the season. Both Eugenio Suárez and TJ Friedl cleared, however, so they’ll be in Chicago this weekend.
I was really hoping the Cubs were going to take a flyer on Suárez, even though he’s been pretty darn bad this season. But there’s got to be more upside than with Gabriel Arias, and it would at least mean not having to face him at Wrigley. I can see this being one of those series where ol’ Geno revives his traditional Cub-killer persona and goes HAM all weekend. Or maybe not.
Either way, the Cubs must win two of these games at the very least.
