Counsell’s Bullpen Circle of Trust Shrinking to Pinpoint as Postseason Looms

“There must be some kind of way out of here,” said Craig Counsell to his chief. “There’s too much confusion. I can’t get no relief.”

I had to adjust Bob Dylan’s — that’s right, kids, that song wasn’t written by either Jimi Hendrix or Dave Matthews — lyrics slightly to give a nod to either Tommy Hottovy or Ryan Flaherty, but that opening line is all too fitting. While the meaning of All Along the Watchtower remains somewhat cryptic, it’s evident that the main characters are somewhere between despair and nihilism as some form of radical change or even doom draws nigh. Sounds sort of like a manager and one of his coaches figuring out how the hell to shore up the bullpen with the postseason around the corner.

Ryan Zeferjahn was supposed to have provided an immediate boost to a unit that ranks 24th in K/9 (7.97), 22nd in strikeout rate (20.9%), and 24th in swinging-strike rate (10.4%). While he’s struck out 10 batters in as many innings, which would otherwise look good relative to the rest of the relief corps, his K and whiff numbers are way down from his time with the Angels. He’s also given up eight earned runs, including two on Monday, despite the Cubs working on some fixes for his flagging results.

Daniel Palencia was supposed to have served as an out-getter who could be deployed in high-leverage situations after coming back from his second stint on the IL. While he’s hit triple digits and struck out five in just 3.1 innings, he’s also allowed six earned runs with two homers. He goes from looking like an elite closer to serving up taters in the same appearance, so actually getting those outs has been a problem.

Hunter Harvey was supposed to have given the Cubs a hard-throwing righty, the likes of which Jed Hoyer almost never spends money on, but his checkered injury history negated that. Harvey made just four appearances before right triceps inflammation sent him to the IL. He was on a similar return trajectory to Palencia before a setback ensured that he won’t make it back this season.

Justin Steele was supposed to have been ready to start games by the second half or maybe even late in the first, but now his return as a reliever is highly questionable. His rehab assignment begins Wednesday, so we’ll see. Ben Brown took over as the staff ace before a recurring neck issue knocked him out of commission. Just as he was getting ready to begin his own rehab outing, symptoms cropped up again.

Rather than continuing to repeat the trope, I’ll just rattle off Hoby Milner, Phil Maton, Caleb Thielbar, Porter Hodge, and Riley Martin. Three of those pitchers remain on the 60-day IL; one was placed on waivers before being designated for assignment and released; and the other has been a frequent target of cries from fans to be DFA’d.

Finally, we come to Shelby Miller, who signed a two-year deal in the offseason under the presumption that he wouldn’t be available this year following elbow reconstruction last October. He’s worked his way back and has touched 98 mph with the Iowa Cubs, but the team is still being very careful with him even as the bullpen continues to look about as stable as a model bridge made out of toothpicks.

Thus, Counsell is left with a unit that has very few arms he can trust on a regular basis. Or maybe that perception is just colored by recent events, and the ‘pen is actually better than what the last few series have led us to believe. After all, their aggregate 4.01 ERA ranks 12th in MLB and sixth in the NL. That’s pretty good, right? Yeah, until you see that they rank 27th with a 4.65 FIP that says the defense is doing a lot of heavy lifting. That is backed by a .274 BABIP against, the seventh-lowest mark in MLB.

Then you consider that home runs are not balls in play, outside of rare exceptions, and the Cubs bullpen gives them up at a higher rate than any other. Their 81 homers allowed are fewer than the Rays (82) or Nationals (95), but those teams have respectively thrown 30.1 and 118.1 more relief innings than the Cubs. It’s gotten to the point where they need to score at least five runs just to feel comfortable holding on.

Since July 31, the Cubs are 3-11 in games in which they score four or fewer, and their last win in such a game was August 18 against the While Sox. The Brewers, meanwhile, are 8-11 since the end of July when they score four or fewer. As if it wasn’t already clear, this tells us the Cubs are going to live and die by their explosive offense. They’ve scored more runs and hit more homers than any other team, but all that matters in the end is the record.

Scoring 17 runs with nine homers means nothing if you show up the next game and manage only four runs with no dongs. The good news is that Palencia and Zeferjahn still have time to work through their kinks, and I’m talking about mechanical issues rather than what could be conflated with a desire to be publicly shamed. Just having some continuity should help as well, and the only way to find it is to keep running guys out there to get right.

As an aside, the fact that Cubs pitchers have allowed 80 more runs than their Dodgers counterparts is a massive check in Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s favor for MVP. He’s having to swim upstream while the other candidate can relax on a lazy river.

There is no one coming up from the minors to save the bullpen, and Jed Hoyer obviously can’t swing a trade for another would-be difference-maker at this point. The answer can only come from within, and we’re not talking about some sort of drastic turnaround. Just having a unit that performs at a league-average level would be fine. I don’t think that’s too much to expect. Right?

Outside in the cold distance, a wildcat did growl. The playoffs were approaching, and the fans began to howl.