Quantifying Hope: Cubs Near Postseason Clinch with 99.9% Odds

Though only one game separates the three Wild Card teams heading into Friday’s action, the Diamondbacks have lost two in a row to fall four games out of the postseason hunt with only nine left to play. The last three of those are against the Padres, which should be good news for the Cubs. It won’t matter if the North Siders can just keep winning, beginning Friday evening in Cincinnati and continuing against the Marlins and Red Sox.

I still think it’s exceedingly odd to end the season with an interleague series, but whatever. Rather than watching the out-of-town scoreboard, the Cubs would do well to keep their heads down and keep pushing toward their goal. They’re tied with the Phillies and have the Padres lurking just a game behind, so there’s no time to hope for outside help.

The Cubs did get a little help recently, however, when Philly lefty Jesus Luzardo was placed on the IL with shoulder soreness. While the Phils have plenty of firepower in the rotation, losing Luzardo for the remainder of the regular season and possibly that Wild Card round should be favorable for their opponents. Also working in the Cubs’ favor is the fact that the Reds have been eliminated from contention.

In past years, that might have meant they’d find extra motivation to play the role of spoiler. Now, however, they’re throttling down young ace Chase Burns and others to prioritize future seasons. The Marlins are eight games back and could be out of the race by the time they arrive in Chicago on Tuesday, so that’s also good. Boston is five games up on the Guardians for the second AL Wild Card, and having a seven-game lead on the Rangers and Blue Jays means the Red Sox could be cruising by season’s end.

Still, this is no time for the Cubs to look ahead and assume they’re good to go. They still need to get the pitching staff figured out to whatever extent they can, and securing home-field advantage for that first round would be nice. As the late Al Davis would say, “Just win, baby!”