Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/23/26): Gausman, Gusto Starting Consequential Contest
The Cubs’ failure to execute late in Tuesday’s game and the Diamondbacks’ win staved off a postseason clinch. Then you had the Phillies winning and the Padres losing, which threw the Wild Card race back into a virtual three-way tie. Holding the tiebreaker over both gives the Cubs a slight edge, but it would be nice to have a little more confidence in them with just five games to go.
Their fate tonight may depend on which version of Kevin Gausman they get, as he’s been very erratic since joining the team at the trade deadline. Gausman has yet to make two good starts in a row for the Cubs, nor has he completed more than five innings consecutively in those eight starts. Jameson Taillon apparently left some of his home run disease behind, causing Gausman to serve up 10 in 44.2 innings after allowing 15 in 127.1 innings for the Blue Jays.
His strikeouts are up and his walks are down, but that’s a function of Gausman throwing too many strikes. The Cubs wanted him to lean more into his splitter, so he’s increased its usage to 44.5% after throwing it 36.9% of the time with Toronto. That means fewer sliders, which weren’t working anyway, and not as many fastballs. But that heater has gone from a very strong pitch to one that has gotten negative value with the Cubs.
I don’t know if it’s a mental thing or just creating better odds for hitters who really only have to choose between two pitches, but Gausman has not provided the boost the Cubs were hoping for. If he can’t find a way to stop alternating between good and bad performances, the bats will have to win this one.
Pete Crow-Armstrong will almost certainly try for his 40th stolen base tonight as he leads off in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right and Michael Busch at first. Michael Conforto is the DH, Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner plays second, and Pedro Ramirez is at third. Dansby Swanson is at short and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.
Don’t be surprised if Alex Bregman gets an at-bat late in this one, as he has said he feels capable should the right situation arise.
They’re facing 27-year-old righty Ryan Gusto, who allowed five earned runs over 4.2 innings when he pitched against them 18 days ago. An 11th-round pick by the Astros out of Florida Southwestern JC in 2019, Gusto worked his way steadily through Houston’s system for part of four seasons before breaking camp as a swingman in 2025. If the math doesn’t seem to be mathing there, it’s because Gusto lost 2020 to the COVID shutdown and ’21 due to elbow reconstruction. He was dealt to the Marlins as part of the return for Jesús Sánchez at the deadline in ’25, then allowed 14 runs in two starts before being placed on the IL with a shoulder impingement.
Gusto is a swing starter who has been optioned and recalled multiple times this season despite solid results. The big righty has a broad repertoire highlighted by an 87 mph changeup that he loves to throw away to left-handed hitters. His 95 mph fastball has a little cut and often lands middle-up; then there’s a 93 mph sinker with decent action. His 90 mph cutter is pretty good, but his sweeper, slider, and curve are not.
Because he throws the cutter and change far more often to lefties, Gusto has produced reverse splits this season. He’s also been much better at home, where the platoon splits are even more pronounced, which should spell good things for the Cubs tonight. With the wind blowing in again, however, they might want to consider finding ways to manufacture runs before it gets too late.
First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
