Morejon, Peterson Strongest Connections Among 7 of MLBTR’s Top 50 FAs Predicted to Cubs
Ah, we’ve reached the point in the offseason where all the free-agent predictions are coming out. The art of guessing who’s going to end up where and for how much is a cottage industry, though building materials vary by outlet. To be fair, it’s really tough to hit moving targets. That’s why I still return to MLB Trade Rumors despite what can be some pretty wild salary figures from time to time.
What I like about their annual top 50 free agent list is that they use a collaborative method that sees Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald put their heads together. Then they pick each player’s next team independently, which I find informative. That’s particularly true when two or more of them agree on a destination, which is the case for two of the seven players they linked to the Cubs.
One of those is a familiar face and the other is someone I’ve noted as a preferred target at least twice already, so no surprise on either front. Tarik Skubal is not among those players being connected to the Cubs, which is even less of a surprise. Let’s go ahead and take a quick look at all those players with at least one of the MLBTR folks saying they’ll end up on the North Side.
2) Trevor Rogers (LHP) – 5/$115M (White Sox, Cubs, Jays)
Perhaps the biggest thing working in Rogers’ favor is that he’s younger than most of the other pitchers on the market. He is about to turn 29, so a five-year deal should age fairly well. That drives his price up a little higher than past performance would otherwise dictate, as Rogers has only once made more than 25 starts in parts of seven seasons. That one time was this past year in Baltimore, when he started 30 games and pitched just shy of 170 innings.
His 93.8 mph fastball looks somewhat pedestrian on paper, though he locates it well and avoids hard contact. That helps to make up for mediocre whiff and strikeout rates, as does his elite walk rate, but you have to question whether he can hold up over the length of the deal after battling through injuries and/or poor performance for most of the four previous seasons.
While acknowledging that Rogers and Matthew Boyd are not the same kind of pitcher, it’s hard not to see this as a direct replacement at a much higher cost. As such, I don’t see the Cubs seriously pursuing him.
3) Freddy Peralta (RHP) – 5/$110M (Cubs, White Sox x2)
I think we’ve talked about Peralta enough to truncate this section. Though he’s older than Rogers, his stronger track record and bigger strikeout numbers make him a far more attractive target to me. There should be concerns about how his 94 mph fastball will hold up over another handful of years, but he’s obviously never been a velo-dependent pitcher.
8) Adrián Morejón (LHP) – 5/$80M – (Cubs x2, Dodgers)
This continues to strike me as one of the best moves the Cubs could make, even if that price tag seems well outside their preferences for a reliever. Then again, teams could look to stretch him out as suggested in that piece above and by MLBTR. We’re talking about one of the game’s elite late-inning pitchers, a dude who dominates hitters with a 99.5 mph sinker and 92 mph changeup.
Morejón received a qualifying offer, but the Cubs might not be as concerned about that since they’ll receive compensation when Seiya Suzuki rejects his own QO to sign elsewhere. Unless Suzuki stays around, which no one seems to think will happen.
13) Sonny Gray (RHP) – 2/$55M (Cubs, Braves, Rays)
This is another popular name among Cubs targets, and has been for some time now. Gray is about to turn 37 and his 92 mph sinker velo continues to trend down, so I’m just not sure how well he fits with a Cubs team that needs to improve in that area. Unless he’s a complementary piece to a bigger pitching addition, Gray’s lack of whiffs and strikeouts concerns me when looking at how his next year or two will go.
16) Clay Holmes (RHP) – 3/$45M (Cubs, Royals, Braves)
Holmes finished out the season with the Cubs following his trade from the Mets, and he just opted out of a $12 million salary for 2027. Even though his whiff and K numbers are even lower than the man directly above him here, give me Holmes over Gray all day. His elite groundball and barrel rates play so well at Wrigley and in front of the Cubs’ defense in general.
Again, this would very much need to be a complementary addition meant to bolster the middle of the rotation.
30) David Peterson (LHP) – 2/$24M (Cubs x3)
If the Cubs are looking for value — and when aren’t they? — bringing Peterson back to round out the rotation would be a solid move. Peterson to the Cubs is one of seven unanimous selections by the MLBTR crew, who would essentially move into the spot opened up by declining Colin Rea‘s option. Though his underlying numbers aren’t great, Peterson stays away from barrels while keeping the ball on the ground.
Paying $12 million a year for a competent starter is actually a pretty good deal, and it’s not too high a figure to keep them from using him as a swingman if needed.
45) Jonathan Loáisiga (RHP) – 2/$13M (Cubs, Brewers, Yankees)
Loáisiga could be an intriguing target because he’s got a 98 mph sinker that makes him far more adept at getting grounders than strikeouts. His whiff and K rates are pretty abysmal, but nearly every other slider on his Baseball Savant page is bright red. He’s murder on righties and could make for a nice bullpen add at a cost that takes his spotty health history into account.
For my money, a combination of Peralta and Morejón would yield a massive upgrade to the pitching staff. Then you add one of Holmes or Peterson with Loaisiga to round things out, after which it’s a matter of getting Justin Steele and Ben Brown back to full strength. Throw in Cade Horton later in the season or in 2028 and you’ve got the makings of a more dynamic group than we saw this past season.
Now let’s look at some of those players who might be relevant to the Cubs’ pursuits in one way or another. Forgive me for not writing any of these up further.
1) Tarik Skubal (LHP) – 9/$425 (Mets x2, Dodgers)
5) Randy Arozarena – 4/$100M (Jays, Red Sox, Phillies)
6) Michael King – 4/$92M (Padres x3)
10) Kaima Taira – 4/$72M (Jays, Mets, Red Sox)
17) Ian Happ – 3/$45 (Phillies, Royals, Reds)
18) Kevin Gausman – 2/$44M (Jays x2, Orioles)
21) Shota Imanaga – 2/$40M (Giants x3)
33) Carson Kelly – 2/$20M (Phillies x2, Yankees)
47) Matthew Boyd – 1/$13M (Rays, Nats, Cards)
